No. 3 Jessica Pegula rallies from slow start to reach US Open fourth round

I glance at the clock: 32 minutes. That's all the time Leylah Fernandez needed to take a 6-1 first set against Jessica Pegula on Louis Armstrong Stadium. Up in the stands, the Canadian contingent in red was waving flags and singing — they saw their prodigy touching the memory of 2026. But I wasn't looking at the scoreboard. I was looking at the ticker of numbers updating on my screen: Pegula won just 1 of her 3 service games, forced zero break points. For the world No. 3, a newly crowned Cincinnati champion, that number isn't a reflection of class — it's a reflection of a distracted start. "I don't really feel like I was in the first set," Pegula herself admitted in her on-court interview, as if she too was surprised by her own sluggishness. But this is a familiar story for anyone who has followed Jessica Pegula through the 2026 season. She entered the US Open with 11 comeback wins — the most on the WTA Tour, level with Coco Gauff. You could call it the mentality of a warrior or of tremendous resilience. But I, someone who has watched her closely for years, see a warning sign disguised as a positive record. Comebacks don't happen in a vacuum. They happen because someone has put themselves in a losing position first. And at a Grand Slam, where opponents of the caliber of Sabalenka or Gauff are lurking, the habit of starting slow is a ticking time bomb. Look at Friday's match as a case study. Fernandez, the No. 31 seed and 2026 US Open finalist, came out with a clear game plan: stand closer to the baseline to take the return early, and attack decisively from the get-go. The tactic rattled Pegula completely. Fernandez broke her eight times, earned the early break, and led 3-0. But then, something shifted. Pegula didn't panic. She began to adjust her serve placement and first-ball aggression, and Fernandez lost her timing. From that point on, Pegula saved 8 of 9 break points — a phenomenal display of fortitude under pressure. She took the second set 7-5 after a decisive break in game 11, and closed out the match at 3-1 in the third, converting 5 of 7 break point opportunities overall. Fernandez, who played some brilliant tennis in that opening set, ended the match with 25 unforced errors against just 13 winners — a catastrophic breakdown in efficiency. But instead of praising Pegula's ability to turn it around, I want to interrogate it. My harshest analytics self, the one who has charted her career for years, will ask: why do you need to lose a set before you start playing your best tennis? The answer might lie in her own admission: "lazy" feet — a physical and mental unreadiness in the opening games of a match. That isn't just a one-off lapse. It's a habit, deeply ingrained, and it will matter when your opponent isn't a player like Fernandez, whose intensity visibly waned in sets two and three. Aryna Sabalenka, the top-seeded defending champion, doesn't fade in that way. Sabalenka has won 16 consecutive matches at the US Open, the longest active streak in women's tennis since Serena Williams' run from 2026-2026. She just dismantled Kamilla Rakhimova with 10 aces against a single double fault, winning 76.4% of her service points and never facing a break point. The potential meeting between these two women, likely in the semifinals, is a direct matchup between Sabalenka's blazing form and Pegula's habit of starting slowly. For Sabalenka, finishing matches from the first set is instinct. She has spoken about how her mindset has shifted: "Before when I started to play, I look at these players and I felt something untouchable, like it was something impossible." Now, she says, "I just really focus on myself." That is the difference. Meanwhile, Pegula's immediate concern is fourth-round opponent Sorana Cirstea, who defeated Marta Kostyuk. Cirstea isn't a matchup that should trouble Pegula, but the trap of starting slow could turn an expected win into a grind. Another name on my radar is Taylor Townsend. She just beat Diana Shnaider 7-6(3), 6-3 to reach the US Open fourth round for the third time in her career — an affinity for this hard court that is not a coincidence. Townsend saved 10 of 12 break points, an excellent rate, while converting 5 of 7 of her own chances. She admitted affectionately, "I don't know where I am," a mixture of excitement and bemusement. It is an honest rarity in a pro. But the price of facing Sabalenka in the fourth round will be steep. I don't think Townsend beats Sabalenka five times out of ten, but in a one-off match, with that kind of serving form, she can win. We are witnessing a fascinating divergence. On one side stands Sabalenka, a force of nature, dominating through sheer power and a hardened mentality. On the other, Pegula, the eternal runner-up at 30, finally chasing her first Grand Slam — a title that would also lift her to world No. 1. But there is a question I want to pose to both of them: Can Sabalenka's intense focus keep her streak alive, or will she feel the pressure of being hunted? And can Pegula survive the danger of falling into too many early holes, given that her next likely challenge is the one player on tour who does not let leads slip away? If I were a fan, I would love Pegula's story — the perpetual underdog, the fighter, the one who claws her way back. But I am not a fan. I am an observer of data points and micro-patterns. And my micro-pattern reading tells me that those 11 comeback wins are as much a tribute to her persistence as they are a warning about an unhealthy habit. When the opponent on the other side of the net is Sabalenka, a player who enjoys ending the contest just as it begins, waking up in the third set may already be too late. I remember Pegula's comebacks. But I also remember her previous Grand Slam final, when she had no comeback left to make. That's why I'm not going to convince myself that a comeback win over Leylah Fernandez in the third round is a safe port. It's a harbinger. The question is whether Pegula can survive the kind of storm Sabalenka brings if she has to make another comeback — and I, for one, am holding my breath to see just how she answers, or if she will ever get the chance to.