Racing Bulls set Q3 goal after solid first day in Monza as Tsunoda explains 'good learning'

Monza, September 4, 2026 – As the clock hit the final moments of the second practice session on Formula 1's fastest circuit, the timing screen displayed a name that made many squint: Arvid Lindblad, seventh place, directly ahead of the silver, red, and orange cars of the three top teams. In a paddock accustomed to rigid hierarchies, Racing Bulls has just sent a signal that could not be clearer: the 2026 game may no longer follow the old script.

I start from data; every number is a drumbeat before the ball rolls. And the data from Friday's practice sessions at Italy's temple of speed shows a midfield team standing before a rare opportunity. But before discussing the future, let's read carefully what happened on track.

Context: The Red Bull group reshuffle and the regulatory turning point

The 2026 season is not just another transitional year. This is the first year of the new technical regulation cycle, featuring a 50/50 ICE-electrical power unit split, active aerodynamics, and sustainable fuels. These changes have reshaped the competitive order, creating opportunities for teams ready to adapt the fastest. And Racing Bulls, with a lower position in the 2026 constructors' standings, enjoys more aerodynamic testing time (ATR) than the top teams – a strategic advantage often overlooked.

The personnel context is also notable. At Monza, Yuki Tsunoda sits in the Racing Bulls seat replacing Liam Lawson, who is deputising at Red Bull Racing. The reshuffle within the Red Bull group places Tsunoda in a peculiar situation: the more experienced driver but one adapting to a team he has only driven for the second time this season.

Core analysis: Signals from two sessions

Lindblad, the young talent from the Red Bull junior program, achieved seventh place in both FP1 and FP2. What is striking is not just the position, but the list of teams behind him: only Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren were faster. This is a strong signal that Racing Bulls is leading the midfield group, possibly closer to the top three than the rest of the midfield pack.

Tsunoda, in contrast, started slower with 12th in FP1 but improved to 10th in FP2. He described this progress as mainly coming from improved rear stability when switching from medium to soft tyres. This is a key setup signal: the car is sensitive to tyre compound transitions, a common characteristic of 2026-spec cars with reduced downforce and active aero systems.

From my experience following practice sessions, such a detail is often overlooked in quick news reports. But for engineers, it is the key to optimising for qualifying. If the car is more stable on soft tyres, the tyre strategy for Q2 and Q3 needs to be adjusted accordingly.

The only weakness Tsunoda admitted was forgetting to activate Straight Line Mode (SLM) before Turn 11. He explained that this year's system has more detection and activation points than last season – part of the new active aero regulations. This is not a car deficiency but a driver adaptation challenge with new systems. However, under qualifying pressure, such errors can recur.

Contrarian angle: Red Bull's silence and the truth about pace

The most striking thing in the report is not what is written, but what is not mentioned. Red Bull Racing – the sister team – does not appear in the FP2 top-three list. Is this a sign that the energy drinks giant is struggling in the new regulation cycle? Or simply that the report did not mention their position? When the stadium falls silent, I learn to hear the team through pages of notes. This silence, in the context of Lawson replacing the seat at Red Bull, could be a more important signal than any number on the timing screen.

Another blind spot that media often misses: the intra-team rivalry. Lindblad, the young talent, is outperforming Tsunoda – the more experienced – on raw pace. This raises questions about the team's long-term strategy. One day of practice is insufficient to conclude, but if Lindblad maintains this form, Racing Bulls will face a difficult decision about driver prioritisation.

Takeaway: Internal signals for qualifying

With data from two practice sessions, Racing Bulls has the right to set a dual-car Q3 target. The one-second margin to P16 in Q1 is a significant safety buffer. However, what the team needs to focus on is traffic management – a factor that always complicates matters at Monza – and ensuring Tsunoda masters the SLM system before qualifying begins.

Data is not impatient; it waits for me to read carefully before believing in emotions. And the emotion at Monza this weekend is a midfield team standing before the biggest opportunity in their modern history. The question is not whether they are fast enough, but whether they are calm enough to convert speed into results when qualifying begins. With Lindblad flying high and Tsunoda adapting, Racing Bulls has every reason to believe their future lies beyond the midfield.